NFL playoffs – Betting nuggets for the divisional round

NFL


This is the first time the Chiefs and Packers both had the best outright record in their league/conference since 1966, when Kansas City had the best record in the AFL and Green Bay had the best record in the NFL and they met in Super Bowl I. Will history repeat itself?

Here are betting nuggets for each divisional playoff game this weekend and the full schedule.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.


Saturday’s games

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 45.5), 4:35 p.m. ET

• Since the NFL added the wild-card round in 1978, teams that pulled off outright upsets in that round are 25-35-1 ATS in the divisional round.

Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams, and Green Bay has covered seven straight meetings overall dating back to 2007.

• All five Green Bay playoff games since 2016 have gone over the total.

• Twelve of the 17 Rams games this season have gone under the total.

• All seven outdoor playoff games in weather below 32 degrees since 2017 went over the total. All four outdoor games below 32 degrees this season went over the total.

Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS and outright in his career in games below freezing with zero passing touchdowns and five interceptions.

• The current spread of 6.5 is tied for the second-largest underdog spread in a Rams game since Sean McVay took over.

• The Rams are 21-13 ATS on the road under McVay.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 50), 8:15 p.m. ET

• Baltimore is 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018. Jackson is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright as an underdog.

• Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS in his career on the road.

• Buffalo has covered eight of its last nine games, though its eight-game cover streak ended last week against Indianapolis.

• Buffalo is 7-1 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

• Bills games are 12-4-1 to the over this season, tied for the second-highest mark in the league.

• Baltimore is 11-5-1 ATS this season, tied with Miami (11-5) for the best mark in the league. Buffalo is 11-6 ATS, the third-best mark in the league.

Sunday’s games

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 57), 3:05 p.m. ET

• Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. The only cover in that span was a three-point win over New Orleans when the line closed at -2.5 after being -3 most of the week. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS at home in that span and 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in that span.

• Cleveland is the 10th team since 1997 to win at least 11 games in the regular season and be a double-digit underdog in the playoffs. The previous nine went 8-1 ATS and 4-5 outright. And since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, 11-win teams are 11-5-1 ATS as double-digit playoff underdogs.

• The current total of 57 (as of Wednesday) ties the highest in a divisional playoff game in the last 35 seasons. In the 2009 divisional round, New Orleans beat Arizona, 45-14, going over the number of 57. All four playoff games since 1986 with a total of 57 or higher went over.

• Double-digit favorites are 6-1 ATS in the divisional round since 2010.

Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs (3-0 last season).

• Mahomes is 5-7 ATS in his career as a double-digit favorite and 26-13 ATS in all other games.

• Since 2014, reigning Super Bowl champions are 4-1 ATS in their first playoff game the following season.

Baker Mayfield is 0-4 ATS in his career as more than a 7-point underdog. He is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog.

• Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in conference games this season.

• Cleveland has lost 22 consecutive games as a double-digit underdog, the longest active streak in the league. The Browns’ last win as a double-digit underdog came in 2010 at New Orleans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52), 6:40 p.m. ET

• New Orleans has won and covered five straight meetings. Tom Brady has never gone 0-3 ATS or SU against one team in a single season in his career.

Drew Brees is 5-2 outright and ATS in his career against Brady. Brees’ 5-2 record is the best among 17 quarterbacks to face Brady at least five times (including the playoffs).

• History shows the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season” is overblown. In the Super Bowl era, teams that won the first two meetings are 14-8 outright in the third meeting, though they are just 10-11-1 ATS.

• New Orleans beat Tampa Bay by 46 combined points in its regular-season sweep. That’s the highest point differential in a sweep for any team entering a third meeting against an opponent in a single season. However, in each of the previous three highest instances, the team that got swept in the regular season won the playoff rematch outright as at least a 6-point underdog.

• All four New Orleans playoff games since 2018 have gone under.

• New Orleans has covered the last four times it has been a home favorite.

• Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS and 1-2 outright as an underdog this season. Brady is 39-17-1 ATS as an underdog in his career (34-23 outright). Brady is 4-3 ATS and outright as a playoff underdog.

• Tampa Bay is 1-4 outright and 2-3 ATS against teams that finished with winning records. Since 2015, the under is 21-8 in Tom Brady starts with a total in the 50s (15-5 since 2017).

• New Orleans is 7-1 ATS and outright when Michael Thomas plays this season.



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